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Scientists Behaving Badly
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Scientists Behaving Badly |
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Huan Yi Member Ascendant
since 2004-10-12
Posts 6688Waukegan 
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. http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/284137/scientists-behaving-badly-jim-lacey You can listen to it while doing other things . . . . |
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| © Copyright 2011 John Pawlik - All Rights Reserved | |||
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Grinch Member Elite
since 2005-12-31
Posts 2929Whoville |
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-bad-month-for-climate-change-skeptics/2011/11/18/gIQA4amsZN_story.html |
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Huan Yi Member Ascendant
since 2004-10-12
Posts 6688Waukegan |
. “Mr. Muller said that exactly how much humans contribute to such warming is difficult to calculate. . . What are the consequences? Scientists can’t be sure. . . . But, despite the rhetoric that emerges every time a hurricane hits the United States, the data is too thin to conclude that global warming has had any effect on aggregate tropical cyclone activity. The IPCC also noted that linking individual weather events to climate change is unreasonable. Natural variability will continue to be a dominant factor in explaining dangerous weather. Predicting future effects also comes with exceptional uncertainties because of scientific models’ inadequacy to simulate the complex climate system many years out, among other things. “ http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-bad-month-for-climate-change-skeptics/2011/11/18/gIQA4amsZN_story.html . |
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Grinch Member Elite
since 2005-12-31
Posts 2929Whoville |
quote: True. Global temperatures and CO2 levels are rising but predicting the consequences using computer based climate modelling is extremely difficult. Even under the worst-case scenario though It's unlikely to matter much to me personally, I'll be long dead before any possible catastrophic consequences occur therefore I vote we save the expense and do nothing.  Humbug. |
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Huan Yi Member Ascendant
since 2004-10-12
Posts 6688Waukegan |
. We agree. There was a head of NASA who got all sorts of flak because he publically questioned human competence in determining what should be the Earth’s optimum; but nobody really answered him. The NR article quotes from e-mails that no one disputes as genuine. You’ve got them chatting the con You can spin later but who will believe you. The simple truth is if a your science can’t discover a cure the best way to money is to discover a new fear. PS: http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2011/11/record-set-absence-of-major-hur ricanes.html . [This message has been edited by Huan Yi (12-02-2011 05:51 PM).] |
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Grinch Member Elite
since 2005-12-31
Posts 2929Whoville |
quote: Only on the "do nothing" policy. I actually believe that manmade global warming is real and that the consequences will be catastrophic I just think that there's not a cat in hells chance of anyone doing anything about it and that even if they did it's too late. Colour me pragmatic. quote: That's probably because it's a stupid question. quote: Yet when critics got tired of reading the emails and looked at the base data it turned out that their findings were sound. The climate is warming and all available data suggests that the rate of warming they reported was correct. I believe the data. |
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Ron
Administrator
Member Rara Avis
since 1999-05-19
Posts 8669Michigan, US |
Reminds me of a guy in California I once knew. Jeff's fifteen-year-old daughter came home with an F in English and blamed it on the way Jeff had been treating the mother. It seems he had knocked Mommy around a few times of late, and the daughter said it made her too stressed to concentrate on school work. Jeff laughed, recognizing a desperate excuse when he saw one. Certainly, there was no proof of correlation and really no more than a suggestion of cause and effect. Jeff took appropriate steps to improve his daughter's concentration in the future. Being careful, of course, to not leave any bruises. I'm not sure that a perceived lack of consequence should necessarily be used to justify unacceptable behavior. Was the girl's failing grade a direct result of her father's behaviors? Probably not. Would the daughter turn to the straight and narrow if we placed her into a better home? Not unless she could overcome a lifetime of dysfunction. But the lack of certainty, and even the lack of any real solution, doesn't mean Daddy should keep right on hitting Mommy. It just ain't right. |
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Huan Yi Member Ascendant
since 2004-10-12
Posts 6688Waukegan |
. "That's probably because it's a stupid question." Disagree . . . Question: has the Earth known other warm periods in the last 2000 years? I seem to remember Jacob Bronowski commenting that the invention of buttons was brought on by the climate becoming colder and thus the need for closer fitting clothes. . |
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Essorant Member Elite
since 2002-08-10
Posts 4769Regina, Saskatchewan; Canada |
I think the saying "expect the unexpected" belongs here. The notion of the future being predictable, of things just staying along the same path, of humans just carrying on the same way, of the climate just following one trend, seems to contradict a lot of everything we know about humans and weather. "Expect the unexpected" - that can mean both good things and bad things, and that is probably about as "scientific" as we can get when talking about what these things shall become in the future. |
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Grinch Member Elite
since 2005-12-31
Posts 2929Whoville |
quote: I'm pretty sure it's a stupid question Huan, is it possible that I could persuade you to change your mind? |
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Huan Yi Member Ascendant
since 2004-10-12
Posts 6688Waukegan |
. “In September, Nobel Prize-winning physicist Ivar Giaever, a supporter of President Obama in the last election, publicly resigned from the American Physical Society (APS) with a letter that begins: "I did not renew [my membership] because I cannot live with the [APS policy] statement: 'The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth's physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now.' In the APS it is OK to discuss whether the mass of the proton changes over time and how a multi-universe behaves, but the evidence of global warming is incontrovertible?" In spite of a multidecade international campaign to enforce the message that increasing amounts of the "pollutant" carbon dioxide will destroy civilization, large numbers of scientists, many very prominent, share the opinions of Dr. Giaever. And the number of scientific "heretics" is growing with each passing year. The reason is a collection of stubborn scientific facts. . . . http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020430140457717153183842136 6.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop What is wrong with the minds of the signers to this article? To me they say don't drink the Kool-Aid . . . . |
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Grinch Member Elite
since 2005-12-31
Posts 2929Whoville |
quote: Or they're wrong, in which case they're the ones pushing the Kool-aid. Where's Pascal and his wager when you need him? |
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Huan Yi Member Ascendant
since 2004-10-12
Posts 6688Waukegan |
. Well that’s my problem. Over and over, you have these apparently very qualified people . . . and they are wrong, or they’re stupid or misinformed. That’s not good enough for me. “Global Warming” “Climate Change” or whatever they choose to call it too much in the face of such objections seems like the stance of vested interests and I am not willing to vote for the hamstringing of my country’s economy to accommodate them. Pascal’s wager has no real costs; paying homage to the Global Warming mantras does. . |
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Ron
Administrator
Member Rara Avis
since 1999-05-19
Posts 8669Michigan, US |
quote: But those costs are going to paid at any rate, John. Unless you think the oil is going to last forever? To my mind, the only real question is whether we want to start paying the costs immediately, sort of like a long term installment plan, or if we want to wait for the balloon payment to come due a little farther down the road. Frankly, like you I think, I'm not sure we can afford the payments on the installment plan. But I know damn well we can't afford the balloon payment. |
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Huan Yi Member Ascendant
since 2004-10-12
Posts 6688Waukegan |
. “But those costs are going to paid at any rate, John.” That presumes the dire effects of Global Warming, which I don’t accept. Canadians, ( if it weren’t politically incorrect), would be probably dancing in the streets in anticipation of a longer growing season which will serve to feed the world’s growing population. “ Unless you think the oil is going to last forever?” We have had a viable alternative in nuclear power for some needs for decades which in a safety conscious environment killed how many people after an unprecedented earthquake? I have confidence if unleashed in the human capacity for finding solutions. The world has more to fear from a man nuclear armed who wishes to facilitate the coming of the Mahdi than the consequences of a navigable Northwest Passage. . |
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Grinch Member Elite
since 2005-12-31
Posts 2929Whoville |
There are scientists that are saying the outcome of global warming will be catastrophic, there are others saying that it will have minimal effect. The majority lean towards the catastrophic but that doesn't really matter, majority opinion doesn't mean that they have to be right. However If you don't try to reduce global warming by moving to cleaner fuel sources and man-made global warming turns out to be true the costs could be..well catastrophic. As Ron suggests, If man-made global warming turns out to be a damp squib you've still replaced an unsustainable fuel source and averted the catastrophic impact of running out of fossil fuels. Of course if you're absolutely sure that fossil fuel will last forever and global warming isn't a potential problem doing nothing is a viable choice. . |
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Ron
Administrator
Member Rara Avis
since 1999-05-19
Posts 8669Michigan, US |
quote: So do I, John. Unfortunately, thousands of people die every day from accidents, disease, crime, hunger and a myriad of other causes, all of which I am confident will some day find solutions. Like you, I'm an optimist. Our optimism, however, probably isn't a lot of consolation to those who have died before a solution could be found. Human ingenuity, John, is not independent of time constraints. We've been enjoying the benefits of essentially free energy for decades, a pace that can no longer be maintained. Weaning ourselves from that dependence won't happen overnight, it probably won't even happen in our lifetime. Yet, if we depend solely on our children to find a solution I very much fear they will fail. We have to give them more than our optimism, John. We have to give them time. |
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Essorant Member Elite
since 2002-08-10
Posts 4769Regina, Saskatchewan; Canada |
Ideally we shouldn't use oil because we are going to run out of it, and/or because the weather may be responding in less than a normal way, and (most of all, in my opinion) because it creates a lot of pollution, but what is the substantial enough replacement and what the good enough plan for the transition from oil to something else for running our cities? When someone comes up with good enough "magic beans" to use instead of fossil fuels I am sure they will be used. |
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Huan Yi Member Ascendant
since 2004-10-12
Posts 6688Waukegan |
. More people die from the cold than the heat Ron and the rest of the world, China, India, etc. aren’t willing to play along, (except to make money; I read where the American wind industry is up in arms because a state setting up a large wind farm is getting its hardware from China). . |
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Huan Yi Member Ascendant
since 2004-10-12
Posts 6688Waukegan |
. And somebody is going to notice all the birds getting shredded . . . but maybe that will lead to more civil servants flying around in Piper Cubs herding them out of harm’s way. . |
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Essorant Member Elite
since 2002-08-10
Posts 4769Regina, Saskatchewan; Canada |
Perhaps we should go extinct and come back as a species of bird? Being able to fly freely (not needing vehicles) and migrate to where it is warm (not needing artificial heating) will remove the dependence on fossil fuels in most cases. It's worth a try. |
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Huan Yi Member Ascendant
since 2004-10-12
Posts 6688Waukegan |
. I'm sure you'd get the cat vote . . . . |
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Huan Yi Member Ascendant
since 2004-10-12
Posts 6688Waukegan |
. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16852065 . |
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Essorant Member Elite
since 2002-08-10
Posts 4769Regina, Saskatchewan; Canada |
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/story/2012/01/31/mb-weather-warmer-prai ries-manitoba.html These scientists can hardly tell the short long term weather and they want us to trust in their ability to tell the long and longer term weather, and for things that include much more complicated influences? |
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