Santa Monica, California, USA
Re: "in science, in medical diagnosis.
logic analysis brings out prediction. All management needs prediction and then plans."
In science, logic is uselful in learning the "scientific method." The "scientific method" seems to consist of making the same mistake over and over again until somebody else gets it right.
In medical diagnosis logic is a useful process of eliminating wrong answers until the right answer shows up. But the right answer will only show up if it is already known.
The trail of logic doesn't doesn't lead to anything new. There seems to be another factor at work, variously labeled insight, or epiphany or enlightment. The Eureka moment.
Now, logic can be used to test the validity of an insight and explain that insight to others, but logic doesn't lead to insight.
"logic analysis brings out prediction."
True-ish, but it doesn't lead to certainty except in the most mundane of circumstances, which I think was the notion that started this thread.
If you drop a paperweight a thousand times, logical analysys can suggest with certainty that it will fall to the floor the next time you drop it, too. At the same time, if a basketball player makes 20 foul shots in a row, logical analysis cannot predict with certainty that the player will make the next shot as well. Too many variables, and this is only mildly complex.
"All management needs prediction and then plans."
Well, the Army Corps of Engineers predicted that they could control the flow of the Mississippi river, made plans, and even carried them out. This history of the Mississippi flood control plan is the history of flooded cities.
"The best laid plans of mice and men gang aft agley. -- Robert Burns
In rereading the above, it occurs to me that I have entirely too much free time.
[This message has been edited by oceanvu2 (04-25-2007 01:53 PM).]