How to Join Member's Area Private Library Search Today's Topics p Login
Main Forums Discussion Tech Talk Mature Content Archives
   Nav Win
 Discussion
 The Alley
 Scientists Behaving Badly
 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Follow us on Facebook

 Moderated by: Ron   (Admins )

 
User Options
Format for Better Printing EMail to a Friend Not Available
Admin Print Send ECard
Passions in Poetry

Scientists Behaving Badly

 Post A Reply Post New Topic   Go to the Next Oldest/Previous Topic Return to Topic Page Go to the Next Newest Topic 
Huan Yi
Member Ascendant
since 10-12-2004
Posts 6334
Waukegan


0 posted 12-02-2011 11:03 AM       View Profile for Huan Yi   Email Huan Yi   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Huan Yi

.
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/284137/scientists-behaving-badly-jim-lacey


You can listen to it
while doing other things . . .
.
Grinch
Member Elite
since 12-31-2005
Posts 2710
Whoville


1 posted 12-02-2011 01:16 PM       View Profile for Grinch   Email Grinch   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Grinch

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-bad-month-for-climate-change-skeptics/2011/11/18/gIQA4amsZN_story.html

Huan Yi
Member Ascendant
since 10-12-2004
Posts 6334
Waukegan


2 posted 12-02-2011 02:37 PM       View Profile for Huan Yi   Email Huan Yi   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Huan Yi

.


“Mr. Muller said that exactly how much humans contribute to such warming is difficult to calculate. . .


What are the consequences? Scientists can’t be sure. . . .


But, despite the rhetoric that emerges every time a hurricane hits the United States, the data is too thin to conclude that global warming has had any effect on aggregate tropical cyclone activity. The IPCC also noted that linking individual weather events to climate change is unreasonable. Natural variability will continue to be a dominant factor in explaining dangerous weather.
Predicting future effects also comes with exceptional uncertainties because of scientific models’ inadequacy to simulate the complex climate system many years out, among other things. “

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-bad-month-for-climate-change-skeptics/2011/11/18/gIQA4amsZN_story.html
.
Grinch
Member Elite
since 12-31-2005
Posts 2710
Whoville


3 posted 12-02-2011 03:34 PM       View Profile for Grinch   Email Grinch   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Grinch


quote:
What are the consequences? Scientists can’t be sure. . . .


True. Global temperatures and CO2 levels are rising but predicting the consequences using computer based climate modelling is extremely difficult.

Even under the worst-case scenario though It's unlikely to matter much to me personally, I'll be long dead before any possible catastrophic consequences occur therefore I vote we save the expense and do nothing.




Humbug.
Huan Yi
Member Ascendant
since 10-12-2004
Posts 6334
Waukegan


4 posted 12-02-2011 05:15 PM       View Profile for Huan Yi   Email Huan Yi   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Huan Yi

.


We agree.


There was a head of NASA who got all sorts of flak
because he publically questioned human competence
in determining what should be the Earth’s optimum;
but nobody really answered him.


The NR article quotes from e-mails that no one disputes
as genuine.   You’ve got them chatting the con
You can spin later but who will believe you.   The simple
truth is if a your science can’t discover a cure the best way to money
is to discover a new fear.


PS:

   http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2011/11/record-set-absence-of-major-hur   ricanes.html

.

[This message has been edited by Huan Yi (12-02-2011 05:51 PM).]

Grinch
Member Elite
since 12-31-2005
Posts 2710
Whoville


5 posted 12-02-2011 07:51 PM       View Profile for Grinch   Email Grinch   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Grinch


quote:
We agree.


Only on the "do nothing" policy.

I actually believe that  manmade global warming is real and that the consequences will be catastrophic I just think that there's not a cat in hells chance of anyone doing anything about it and that even if they did it's too late.

Colour me pragmatic.

quote:
There was a head of NASA who got all sorts of flak
because he publically questioned human competence
in determining what should be the Earth’s optimum;
but nobody really answered him.


That's probably because it's a stupid question.

quote:
The NR article quotes from e-mails that no one disputes
as genuine. You’ve got them chatting the con
You can spin later but who will believe you.


Yet when critics got tired of reading the emails and looked at the base data it turned out that their findings were sound. The climate is warming and all available data suggests that the rate of warming they reported was correct.

I believe the data.

Ron
Administrator
Member Rara Avis
since 05-19-99
Posts 9708
Michigan, US


6 posted 12-03-2011 08:59 AM       View Profile for Ron   Email Ron   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Ron's Home Page   View IP for Ron

Reminds me of a guy in California I once knew.

Jeff's fifteen-year-old daughter came home with an F in English and blamed it on the way Jeff had been treating the mother. It seems he had knocked Mommy around a few times of late, and the daughter said it made her too stressed to concentrate on school work. Jeff laughed, recognizing a desperate excuse when he saw one. Certainly, there was no proof of correlation and really no more than a suggestion of cause and effect. Jeff took appropriate steps to improve his daughter's concentration in the future. Being careful, of course, to not leave any bruises.

I'm not sure that a perceived lack of consequence should necessarily be used to justify unacceptable behavior. Was the girl's failing grade a direct result of her father's behaviors? Probably not. Would the daughter turn to the straight and narrow if we placed her into a better home? Not unless she could overcome a lifetime of dysfunction. But the lack of certainty, and even the lack of any real solution, doesn't mean Daddy should keep right on hitting Mommy.

It just ain't right.
Huan Yi
Member Ascendant
since 10-12-2004
Posts 6334
Waukegan


7 posted 12-03-2011 11:06 PM       View Profile for Huan Yi   Email Huan Yi   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Huan Yi

.


"That's probably because it's a stupid question."


Disagree . . .


Question: has the Earth known
other warm periods in the last 2000 years?
I seem to remember Jacob Bronowski commenting
that the invention of buttons was brought on
by the climate becoming colder and thus the
need for closer fitting clothes.
.
Essorant
Member Elite
since 08-10-2002
Posts 4689
Regina, Saskatchewan; Canada


8 posted 12-06-2011 12:40 AM       View Profile for Essorant   Email Essorant   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Essorant's Home Page   View IP for Essorant

I think the saying "expect the unexpected" belongs here.  The notion of the future being predictable, of things just staying along the same path, of humans just carrying on the same way, of the climate just following one trend, seems to contradict a lot of everything we know about humans and weather.  "Expect the unexpected" - that can mean both good things and bad things, and that is probably about as "scientific" as we can get when talking about what these things shall become in the future.  

Grinch
Member Elite
since 12-31-2005
Posts 2710
Whoville


9 posted 12-06-2011 07:53 PM       View Profile for Grinch   Email Grinch   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Grinch


quote:
Disagree . . .


I'm pretty sure it's a stupid question Huan, is it possible that I could persuade you to change your mind?

Huan Yi
Member Ascendant
since 10-12-2004
Posts 6334
Waukegan


10 posted 01-27-2012 03:31 PM       View Profile for Huan Yi   Email Huan Yi   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Huan Yi

.


“In September, Nobel Prize-winning physicist Ivar Giaever, a supporter of President Obama in the last election, publicly resigned from the American Physical Society (APS) with a letter that begins: "I did not renew [my membership] because I cannot live with the [APS policy] statement: 'The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth's physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now.' In the APS it is OK to discuss whether the mass of the proton changes over time and how a multi-universe behaves, but the evidence of global warming is incontrovertible?"

In spite of a multidecade international campaign to enforce the message that increasing amounts of the "pollutant" carbon dioxide will destroy civilization, large numbers of scientists, many very prominent, share the opinions of Dr. Giaever. And the number of scientific "heretics" is growing with each passing year. The reason is a collection of stubborn scientific facts.  .  .  .


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020430140457717153183842136  6.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop


What is wrong with the minds of the signers
to this article?  To me they say
don't drink the Kool-Aid . . .


.

Grinch
Member Elite
since 12-31-2005
Posts 2710
Whoville


11 posted 01-27-2012 05:34 PM       View Profile for Grinch   Email Grinch   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Grinch


quote:
What is wrong with the minds of the signers
to this article? To me they say
don't drink the Kool-Aid . . .


Or they're wrong, in which case they're the ones pushing the Kool-aid.

Where's Pascal and his wager when you need him?

Huan Yi
Member Ascendant
since 10-12-2004
Posts 6334
Waukegan


12 posted 01-27-2012 06:59 PM       View Profile for Huan Yi   Email Huan Yi   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Huan Yi

.


Well that’s my problem.   Over and over, you have these apparently
very qualified people . . . and they are wrong, or they’re stupid or misinformed.
That’s not good enough for me.  “Global Warming” “Climate Change”
or whatever they choose to call it too much in the face of such objections
seems like the stance of vested interests and I am not willing to vote for
the hamstringing of my country’s economy to accommodate them.  Pascal’s
wager has no real costs; paying homage to the Global Warming mantras does.


.
Ron
Administrator
Member Rara Avis
since 05-19-99
Posts 9708
Michigan, US


13 posted 01-27-2012 07:33 PM       View Profile for Ron   Email Ron   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Ron's Home Page   View IP for Ron

quote:
Pascal’s wager has no real costs; paying homage to the Global Warming mantras does.

But those costs are going to paid at any rate, John. Unless you think the oil is going to last forever?

To my mind, the only real question is whether we want to start paying the costs immediately, sort of like a long term installment plan, or if we want to wait for the balloon payment to come due a little farther down the road. Frankly, like you I think, I'm not sure we can afford the payments on the installment plan.

But I know damn well we can't afford the balloon payment.


Huan Yi
Member Ascendant
since 10-12-2004
Posts 6334
Waukegan


14 posted 01-27-2012 08:10 PM       View Profile for Huan Yi   Email Huan Yi   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Huan Yi

.


“But those costs are going to paid at any rate, John.”

That presumes the dire effects of Global Warming, which I don’t
accept.  Canadians, ( if it weren’t politically incorrect), would be probably
dancing in the streets in anticipation of a longer growing season which
will serve to feed the world’s growing population.

“ Unless you think the oil is going to last forever?”

We have had a viable alternative in nuclear power for some needs
for decades which in a safety conscious environment killed how many
people after an unprecedented earthquake?  I have confidence if
unleashed in the human capacity for finding solutions.

The world has more to fear from a man nuclear armed
who wishes to facilitate the coming of the Mahdi than the
consequences of a navigable Northwest Passage.


.
Grinch
Member Elite
since 12-31-2005
Posts 2710
Whoville


15 posted 01-27-2012 08:33 PM       View Profile for Grinch   Email Grinch   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Grinch


There are scientists that are saying the outcome of global warming will be catastrophic, there are others saying that it will have minimal effect. The majority lean towards the catastrophic but that doesn't really matter, majority opinion doesn't mean that they have to be right.

However If you don't try to reduce global warming by moving to cleaner fuel sources and man-made global warming turns out to be true the costs could be..well catastrophic.

As Ron suggests, If man-made global warming turns out to be a damp squib you've still replaced an unsustainable fuel source and averted the catastrophic impact of running out of fossil fuels.

Of course if you're absolutely sure that fossil fuel will last forever and global warming isn't a potential problem doing nothing is a viable choice.

.
Ron
Administrator
Member Rara Avis
since 05-19-99
Posts 9708
Michigan, US


16 posted 01-28-2012 12:56 AM       View Profile for Ron   Email Ron   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Ron's Home Page   View IP for Ron

quote:
I have confidence if  unleashed in the human capacity for finding solutions.

So do I, John. Unfortunately, thousands of people die every day from accidents, disease, crime, hunger and a myriad of other causes, all of which I am confident will some day find solutions. Like you, I'm an optimist. Our optimism, however, probably isn't a lot of consolation to those who have died before a solution could be found.

Human ingenuity, John, is not independent of time constraints. We've been enjoying the benefits of essentially free energy for decades, a pace that can no longer be maintained. Weaning ourselves from that dependence won't happen overnight, it probably won't even happen in our lifetime. Yet, if we depend solely on our children to find a solution I very much fear they will fail. We have to give them more than our optimism, John.

We have to give them time.


Essorant
Member Elite
since 08-10-2002
Posts 4689
Regina, Saskatchewan; Canada


17 posted 01-28-2012 01:20 AM       View Profile for Essorant   Email Essorant   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Essorant's Home Page   View IP for Essorant

Ideally we shouldn't use oil because we are going to run out of it, and/or because the weather may be responding in less than a normal way, and (most of all, in my opinion) because it creates a lot of pollution, but what is the substantial enough replacement and what the good enough plan for the transition from oil to something else for running our cities?  When someone comes up with good enough "magic beans" to use instead of fossil fuels I am sure they will be used.
  
Huan Yi
Member Ascendant
since 10-12-2004
Posts 6334
Waukegan


18 posted 01-28-2012 09:04 AM       View Profile for Huan Yi   Email Huan Yi   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Huan Yi

.


More people die from the cold than the heat Ron
and the rest of the world, China, India, etc. aren’t willing
to play along, (except to make money; I read where the
American wind industry is up in arms because a state
setting up a large wind farm is getting its hardware
from China).  


.
Huan Yi
Member Ascendant
since 10-12-2004
Posts 6334
Waukegan


19 posted 01-28-2012 09:04 AM       View Profile for Huan Yi   Email Huan Yi   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Huan Yi

.


And somebody is going to notice all the birds getting shredded . . .
but maybe that will lead to more civil servants flying around in
Piper Cubs herding them out of harm’s way.

.
Essorant
Member Elite
since 08-10-2002
Posts 4689
Regina, Saskatchewan; Canada


20 posted 01-28-2012 03:00 PM       View Profile for Essorant   Email Essorant   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Essorant's Home Page   View IP for Essorant

Perhaps we should go extinct and come back as a species of bird?  Being able to fly freely (not needing vehicles) and migrate to where it is warm (not needing artificial heating) will remove the dependence on fossil fuels in most cases.  It's worth a try.  
Huan Yi
Member Ascendant
since 10-12-2004
Posts 6334
Waukegan


21 posted 01-30-2012 03:01 PM       View Profile for Huan Yi   Email Huan Yi   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Huan Yi

.


I'm sure you'd get the cat vote . . .


.
Huan Yi
Member Ascendant
since 10-12-2004
Posts 6334
Waukegan


22 posted 02-02-2012 03:24 PM       View Profile for Huan Yi   Email Huan Yi   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Huan Yi

.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16852065


.
Essorant
Member Elite
since 08-10-2002
Posts 4689
Regina, Saskatchewan; Canada


23 posted 02-04-2012 01:17 PM       View Profile for Essorant   Email Essorant   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Essorant's Home Page   View IP for Essorant

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/story/2012/01/31/mb-weather-warmer-prai  ries-manitoba.html

These scientists can hardly tell the short long term weather and they want us to trust in their ability to tell the long and longer term weather, and for things that include much more complicated influences?  
 
 Post A Reply Post New Topic   Go to the Next Oldest/Previous Topic Return to Topic Page Go to the Next Newest Topic 
All times are ET (US) Top
  User Options
>> Discussion >> The Alley >> Scientists Behaving Badly Format for Better Printing EMail to a Friend Not Available
Print Send ECard

 

pipTalk Home Page | Main Poetry Forums

How to Join | Member's Area / Help | Private Library | Search | Contact Us | Today's Topics | Login
Discussion | Tech Talk | Archives | Sanctuary



© Passions in Poetry and netpoets.com 1998-2013
All Poetry and Prose is copyrighted by the individual authors