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Passions in Poetry

Nuclear Weaponed Iran

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Local Rebel
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since 12-21-1999
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Southern Abstentia


25 posted 11-02-2009 09:53 PM       View Profile for Local Rebel   Email Local Rebel   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Local Rebel

quote:

I think they are of a kind that already proves
a contempt for death in pursuit of killing others
now at least once a week.



If by this you mean they are of a kind who convert OTHERS to strap on bombs and walk into marketplaces -- then -- you're right.  

This, however, shows nothing fearless on the part of the 'leaders' does it?

My suspicion is that they are adamantly against their own death -- to the point they would hide in a hole in the ground if they had to.

I maintain that it is our 'friends' who pose the real nuclear threat to the world:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2188324.stm

And I don't think it's wise to misunderstand a culture that "loves death more than [we] love life".  But the fact that there are so damn many of them alive sort of undermines the real credibility of that threat.
Bob K
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since 11-03-2007
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26 posted 11-02-2009 10:53 PM       View Profile for Bob K   Email Bob K   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Bob K



quote:


“Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his Guard?”




     Jerusalem is somewhat lower on the list of sites than two in Saudi Arabia.  The Al Aqsa mosque is built on the site where Mohammed ascended into heaven.  Muslims are required to make a pilgrimage to Mecca, which is considered the most holy place in Islam.  I believe Medina is considered the second.


     I also believe that your understanding of the power structure in Iran is incorrect.  

The Politics of Iran entry in Wikipedia includes the following entry:

quote:


Although he remains aloof from the competition of politics, the most powerful political office in the Islamic Republic is that of the Supreme Leader, of which there have been two: the founder of the Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and his successor, Ali Khamenei.
The Leader appoints the heads of many powerful posts - the commanders of the armed forces, the director of the national radio and television network, the heads of the major religious foundations, the prayer leaders in city mosques, and the members of national security councils dealing with defense and foreign affairs. He also appoints the chief judge, the chief prosecutor, special tribunals and, with the help of the chief judge, half of the 12 jurists of the Guardian Council – the powerful body that decides both what bills may become law and who may run for president or parliament.[9]
[edit]Executive branch

Main article: President of Iran
The Constitution defines the President as the highest state authority after the Supreme Leader. The President is elected by universal suffrage, by those 18 years old and older[1], for a term of four years. Presidential candidates must be approved by the Council of Guardians prior to running. The President is responsible for the implementation of the Constitution and for the exercise of executive powers, except for matters directly related to the Supreme Leader. The President appoints and supervises the Council of Ministers, coordinates government decisions, and selects government policies to be placed before the legislature. Currently, 10 Vice-Presidents serve under the President, as well as a cabinet of 21 ministers, who must all be approved by the legislature. Unlike many other states, the executive branch in Iran does not control the armed forces. Although the President appoints the Ministers of Intelligence and Defense, it is customary for the President to obtain explicit approval from the Supreme Leader for these two ministers before presenting them to the legislature for a vote of confidence.
[edit]Legislative branch





     You might consider checking it out for yourself.

      You might consider paying some attention to the part that talks about how it is the leader who appoints the military commanders.  The leader is not Mahmoud Ahmadinejad;  Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is The President, and is subordinate to the leader, who is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.  Or, as the article says, "The Constitution defines the President as the highest state authority after the Supreme Leader."

     Let me be more explicit, again from the article, which is not as far as I can tell slanted to the right or to the left, but is biased in the direction of offering facts.  The article says, "Unlike many other states, the executive branch in Iran does not control the armed forces."

     Somebody has given you, John, the impression, that the President of Iran seems to have his finger on a button with nuclear weapons connected to the other side of them.  The facts suggest that The President of Iran may have his hands and his mouth in a lot of places, but he is not constitutionally allowed to his his hand on  any nuclear button.  Nor, for that matter is he allowed to have his finger on any military button.  He is allowed some police powers and some judicial powers, but even those are apparently supervised.

     While you have been eagerly pushing Mr. Krauthammer's chair up and down the local hills, and he has been giving you sage advice, he has apparently been forgetting to give you basic information at the same time.  Mr. Ahmadinejad does have some power around treaties, those are part of his constitutional powers, and he apparently has exercised his heaven sent right to be annoying.  Iran may get nuclear power, and they may get nuclear weapons, but if you're thinking that Ahmadinejad is the guy that we need to be seeing as holding the cap gun on the other side of the playground here, I suspect that this is probably not the case.  Nor is the hand being played likely to be the one that he's laying out.

     But of course, the ways of finding out the missing information — intelligence work and diplomacy — are things that you've been doggedly avoiding in discussion.  As though getting blown up or getting our friends and allies blown up were something that you'd rather endure first.  For a man who gets upset at eight soldiers getting killed in one day, I find this confusing.
Grinch
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Whoville


27 posted 11-03-2009 02:13 PM       View Profile for Grinch   Email Grinch   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Grinch


quote:
“Who are "they"?”

“Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his Guard?”

But you knew that . . .


I also knew that Mahmoud and the Guard get their orders from someone else, which is why I posted this:

Launching a nuclear strike towards the two most holy sites in the Islamic world isn't likely to go down too well with the all-powerful one, or Muslims worldwide, including the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Why is he so important? Well he happens to be the supreme leader of Iran - he's the bloke that tells Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Iranian Guard when to jump, where to jump and how high to jump and Ali, supposedly, gets his orders from him upstairs.

It'd be like the Pope sanctioning the nuking of Rome


But you knew that..

Huan Yi
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since 10-12-2004
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Waukegan


28 posted 11-03-2009 05:20 PM       View Profile for Huan Yi   Email Huan Yi   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Huan Yi

.


"I also knew that Mahmoud and the Guard get their orders from someone else, which is why I posted this:

Launching a nuclear strike towards the two most holy sites in the Islamic world isn't likely to go down too well with the all-powerful one, or Muslims worldwide, including the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Why is he so important? Well he happens to be the supreme leader of Iran - he's the bloke that tells Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Iranian Guard when to jump, where to jump and how high to jump and Ali, supposedly, gets his orders from him upstairs.

It'd be like the Pope sanctioning the nuking of Rome

But you knew that.."


What makes you believe Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is any less Apocalyptic?
Further you are absolutely the first one I've ever heard suggest
that the direction of attack could somehow be a deterrent.
Again and specifically, does this apply to an offensive attack against Israel?  I don't recall
this brought up against Saddam when he fired
missiles at Israel during the war, (in which Israel
had not attacked him). . .


.

Bob K
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since 11-03-2007
Posts 3860


29 posted 11-03-2009 09:21 PM       View Profile for Bob K   Email Bob K   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Bob K


  
quote:

What makes you believe Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is any less Apocalyptic?



Dear John,

          I don’t like the President of Iran.  I hope I’ve made that clear.  I find his speech incontinent and offensive in many ways.  About Israel and its right to exist, he does seem Apocalyptic, though I’d have to check the details to make sure that my memory isn’t being swayed by my dislike for the man in general.  I don’t know if these memories are accurate if they extend further.  Apocalypse is not a local phenonenon, but a world wide one.  More Apocalyptic or less Apocalyptic isn’t a very real distinction; the world is gone or it isn’t.

     I don’t know if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is any less Apocalyptic.

     If you do know, please be specific about this, because I would like to know as well.  How do you know this?  Where did you learn it?  

     The word you actually use in your quote above is not “know,” which is of course the word which interests me.  This means information and proof from reliable sources.  The word you used is “believe.”  Belief does not require fact to rest on a firm foundation.  Belief may be in fact the standard which you require.  I am actually requesting facts and knowledge based on facts, not opinion and inferrence.

     I would also be interested in knowing if the Ayatollah is more Apocalyptic.  Since you appear to have access to this sort of information, I’d like to know that as well.

     And the crux of your question is, it appears, the “What makes you?” part.  That would seem to be a request for sources.  Am I correct in my understanding that you have reason to believe that the Ayatollah is as “Apocalyptic” as The President of Iran?  What statements has he made, what positions has he taken as leader of the country that give that impression?  I confess I know of none, which certainly doesn’t mean there are none.

quote:

Further you are absolutely the first one I've ever heard suggest
that the direction of attack could somehow be a deterrent.



     I’m not sure that I follow this.  If you are talking about possession of nuclear weapons working as a deterrent against those who might wish to attack a nation, I would suggest that this is not new military doctrine.  This is what was the underpinning of the strategy of mutually assured destruction — the deterrent was against a first strike.  The retalliation could well destroy those who started the conflict.

     If you are talking about the nature of the targets being religious, then I think you may not be thinking the matter through.  Nuclear attack on Israel is still possible, as is chemical and biological attack..  However when the target is Jerusalem, you target — as a Muslim — yourself as much as Jews.  A ground attack, yes, and it’s been done, but the city is honeycombed with sites that are holy to Muslims as well as Jews, not to mention your occasional Christian.

quote:

Again and specifically, does this apply to an offensive attack against Israel?  I don't recall
this brought up against Saddam when he fired
missiles at Israel during the war, (in which Israel
had not attacked him). . .



     It would depend on what kind of offensive attack it was against Israel.  I don’t recall all the details of the first Gulf War.  I do remember attacks were made against Tel Aviv and some other locations.  I do not recall that there were attacks against Jerusalem.  You may recall there were also attacks against Saudi Arabia.

     You may also forget that Saddam Hussein was not a very religious guy.  He could put it on, but he was pretty much a secularist.  He didn’t care.  Israel was just a bunch of Jews to him; and, for the most part, everybody hated the Jews.  Saddam was an equal opportunity heap of garbage, and that’s the way he thought.

     It is an issue now because there is the possibility of a nuclear exchange.  You can rebuild or clean up after an army, mostly.  Three-headed kids are something else.  Not being able to go to the Al Aqsa Mosque to pray is something else.  Killing millions of Palastinians as well as millions of Jews is something else.  The Egyptians and the Jordanians and the Syrians saw what happened in Russia from one reactor going bad.  Having a bunch of bombs go off in the middle of the territory and having fallout spread all around the area is something else indeed.  

     As Ricky Riccardo was wont to say, “Lucy, you got a lot of ‘splainin’ to do!”

So, whatever else you think, and whatever the good logic of those thoughts, I’d suggest you might keep some of those thoughts in mind as well, to whatever extent you find they have any pragmatism and sense to them.  And of course, pragmatism and sense aren’t always the things that govern.  

     I need to keep that in mind.

Sincerely, Bob Kaven
            
Local Rebel
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since 12-21-1999
Posts 5742
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30 posted 11-03-2009 09:46 PM       View Profile for Local Rebel   Email Local Rebel   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Local Rebel

John,

The estimated population of Iran is  65,875,224.  

The estimated population of Israel is 7.4 million.

Do the math. Forget Nukes. What's keeping Iran's 66 million people from just picking up sticks and stones, walking across Syria and into Israel, and just beating the tar out of its' 7.4 million citizens?

Something must be a deterrent?

While it is true that the Islamic faith, and the brand practiced in Iran in particular, glorifies violence toward infidels -- it's pretty hard for any faith to fight against human nature (a theme often addressed by Marx)

The Catholic Church, for example -- big on trying to suppress the whole sex drive thing -- but, gosh darn it -- they have those confessional booths for something don't they?

Because Sex is FUN!

The Christian Church in general -- the big guy's own words -- take everything you have, sell it, give the money to the poor.  But, hey, what do Christians in this country want to talk about all the time?

Capitalism!

Because owning stuff is FUN!

They'll try the camel through the eye of the needle instead please...

So no matter how many virgins are waiting in paradise -- it's damn hard to try to beat that human instinct to survive --

Because staying alive is FUN!  (ask John Travolta)

There is one human instinct though, that is demonstrably more powerful than survival or sex, or owning stuff -- and that is revenge.

You want to turn all 65 million Iranians into suicidal, homicidal fanatics?  Bomb them.  Ask Saddam Hussein.
Local Rebel
Member Ascendant
since 12-21-1999
Posts 5742
Southern Abstentia


31 posted 11-04-2009 11:28 AM       View Profile for Local Rebel   Email Local Rebel   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Local Rebel

quote:

Still, initial reports suggest large antiregime protests erupted in several locations across Tehran. Large crowds of demonstrators gathered in central districts of the capital near the former U.S. embassy, where an annual pro-government rally was also taking place, according to eyewitnesses and video posted on Iranian websites.

Antiriot police on motorcycle and on foot chased the crowd with batons and plain-clothed Basij militia attacked demonstrators with wooden sticks, according to these accounts.

At one point, one crowd of protesters turned its message toward the American President Barack Obama, chanting, "Obama, Obama, you are either with us or with them."

Basij forces attacked opposition leader and former presidential candidate Mahdi Karroubi, firing teargas at him, according to Mohamad Taghi Karroubi, the cleric's son, in a post on the opposition's "Mowjcamp" Web site. Mr. Karroubi suffered light skin injury, but one of his bodyguards was seriously injured and was take to the hospital, according to the account. It wasn't possible to immediately verify the incident.

"Today the government of the coup proved once again that it will stop at nothing to crush the massive wave of demonstrations," said a statement by the opposition posted on their Web site.

Some marchers through Tehran's streets wore green clothing that symbolized the campaign of opposition leader Mir Hossein Moussavi. It wasn't clear whether Mr. Mousavi was among the protestors.

At Tehran University, students brought down President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's picture to whooping cheers and chants of "God is Great," according to video posts circulating on the Internet.

Witnesses told the Associated Press that security forces, mainly paramilitary units from the elite Revolutionary Guard Corps, swept through several hundred demonstrators at Haft-e-Tir Square in central Tehran, clubbing, kicking and slapping protesters.

The unrest provides another significant challenge for Mr. Ahmadinejad and Iran's conservative clerical leadership, headed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. For months, the regime has struggled to put a lid on simmering unrest, which erupted after contested presidential elections in June, in which Mr. Ahmadinejad was declared the landslide victor.

Mr. Ahmadinejad's attempts at enforcing domestic calm come amid unrest along its restive border with Pakistan and Afghanistan, where antigovernment rebels have stepped up a violent campaign against the regime, killing several senior Revolutionary Guard commanders last month.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125732912728227709.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsTop


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2S_tQFdwKJI&feature=player_embedded
Huan Yi
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since 10-12-2004
Posts 6334
Waukegan


32 posted 11-04-2009 05:47 PM       View Profile for Huan Yi   Email Huan Yi   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Huan Yi

.

"What's keeping Iran's 66 million people from just picking up sticks and stones, walking across Syria and into Israel, and just beating the tar out of its' 7.4 million citizens?"

Turkey, Iraq, a whole lot of dead ground,
mountains and little fresh water . . .
They'd just die without killing anyone but themselves.

Nuked missles are easier.

.
Grinch
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since 12-31-2005
Posts 2710
Whoville


33 posted 11-04-2009 06:57 PM       View Profile for Grinch   Email Grinch   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Grinch

Turkey?

If Turkey is in their way they've taken a wrong turn or lost their satnav Huan.

They could go by road from Piranshar, across the border into Iraq on route 3, pick up route 2 to Mosul then hop on route 1 all the way to the Syrian border. They'd then travel down the M4 and pick up the M1 to Dimashq and from there to Israel.

But they won't.

For the same reason they won't nuke Israel, which in all probability is the same reason they haven't launched a conventional missile strike despite having the capability, or a long-range bombing mission that they're also well capable of doing using Sukhoi Su-30 aircraft refueled in Syria.

My guess is that they've made a conscious decision not to do any of the above Haun, either that or they really have simply mislaid their satnav.



http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/iran/missile/  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-30

.
Bob K
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since 11-03-2007
Posts 3860


34 posted 11-04-2009 07:06 PM       View Profile for Bob K   Email Bob K   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Bob K



     For whom?

     And what is your suggestion as a result of your conclusion?

     It sounds as though you are suggesting that the only way to deal with those bloodthirsty Iranian folks is to order a tidy pre-emptive first strike.  And who better to do so than us just Americans?  Please tell me that you aren't thinking thoughts along these lines, John.
 
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