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Stimulating News of the Day...

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Balladeer
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25 posted 10-16-2009 08:30 PM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

And, I might add, no worse off than before either.

You really believe that, Ron? The police departments buy new equipment which greatly enhances their ability to catch the bad guys but can't maintain it when uncle cuts their allowance. The rezoning they did to hire officers to show greater presence in troubled areas have to be eliminated andthe bad guys know it.  It's not always that easy putting the genie back in the bottle, Ron.

Who's supposed to pay them for their work?

Easy enough to answer....the rich guys, Ron, the evil ones that Obama lays the blame on for everything, the ones that create businesses, hire people.... and make profits. They are not hiring...and why should they? Obama has labeled them the enemy. They are the ones who are first in line to be taxed heavily any time Obama needs money. Why should they hire, expand, make money when Obama is simply going to take it? They are holding a world bearing down on them on their shoulders...and they are shrugging.

What does that kind of logic say about terrorists, Mike? So long as the loss of American lives continues to rise? What does that mean?

When the loss becomes less than it was, we are winning. When the rate of loss continues to grow higher, we are losing. Unemployment continues to rise. We are losing.
Grinch
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26 posted 10-16-2009 08:59 PM       View Profile for Grinch   Email Grinch   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Grinch

quote:
What you are saying is that Democrats can no more say that the stimulus plan is working than the Republicans can say it isn't.


That's exactly what I'm saying.

Reid's statement that he's convinced the stimulus worked is just an opinion, in the same way that Ron's argument that something had to be done is just an opinion - nobody knows for sure one way or the other what would have happened without the stimulus. People just have opinions.

You can surmise, calculate or just plain guess but the truth is that the economy could have been a lot better or it could have been a lot worse without the stimulus, it might even have ended up in exactly the same situation it's in now.

My opinion is that it the very real possibility of it being a whole lot worse had to be avoided at all costs. The stimulus package was an attempt to do just that. I can't give you a cast iron guarantee that it worked - all I can say is that, so far, it isn't a whole lot worse than it could have been, which is the one thing that had to be avoided.

.
Balladeer
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27 posted 10-16-2009 09:06 PM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

all I can say is that, so far, it isn't a whole lot worse than it could have been,

Then you are contradicting yourself. You can't know that it isn't worse for certain, according to you.
Bob K
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28 posted 10-17-2009 05:16 AM       View Profile for Bob K   Email Bob K   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Bob K



Dear Mike,

          How did you explain the jobless recovery at the end of the 1990-1991 Bush administration, when the market and business was coming out of the recession and the job market had not yet recovered.  Were you blaming it on Bush or on Reagan, or were you actually trying to offer some other possible explanation for why the job market was lagging behind?

     Other than the fact that this recession was considerably worse to start out with (because of the what I believe to be the hole that the Republicans dug for us during the previous eight years (and which I understand you don't believe at all), why do you believe that a stimulus package like that George Bush Senior used to get the country out of the 1990 recession would be a failure in this recession?

     It may have cost George Bush Senior a second term, but it laid the groundwork for a period of extraordinary prosperity over the next eight years.

Curiously, Bob Kaven
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29 posted 10-17-2009 08:01 AM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

"the previous eight years"...number 26.

Pardon me if I don't respond to the stuck record, Bob...it gets a little too tiresome for me.
Grinch
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30 posted 10-17-2009 08:22 AM       View Profile for Grinch   Email Grinch   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Grinch

quote:
Then you are contradicting yourself. You can't know that it isn't worse for certain, according to you.


Mike,

That would be true if I were making a prediction of what it could have been but I wasn't. I was referring to the relative assessments of the three possible states based on what is, then stating the blindingly obvious.

"it isn't a whole lot worse than it could have been"

To see the logic of the statement all you need to do is ask yourself if it could have been worse then ask yourself if it is worse.

If it helps I'll give you another non-contradictory statement to balance it out:

It isn't a whole lot better than it could have been either.

  

[This message has been edited by Grinch (10-17-2009 09:30 AM).]

Balladeer
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31 posted 10-17-2009 03:20 PM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

Can't buy that twist, grinch.

"it isn't a whole lot worse is a definitive statement. It's not conditional in that form and it's not presented as an opinion.

It's not something you can know or state with validity or proof. It could be a whole lot worse or a whole lot better...there's no way to know.
Grinch
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32 posted 10-17-2009 03:49 PM       View Profile for Grinch   Email Grinch   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Grinch


quote:
it isn't a whole lot worse is a definitive statement.


So is it isn't a whole lot better either.

Both are logically correct as long as we don't know what they could have been, which was my original point - we can't ever know what they would have been without the stimulus. You look at bad figures and equate it to a bad economic strategy, what you can't seem to accept is that those figures could have been a whole lot worse and that a good economic strategy kept the economy from getting into that worse state. I've no problem accepting the alternative, that the economy could have been better and was actually suppressed by the stimulus - I can accept it but I can't prove it because I don't know how much better it would have been without the stimulus.

It could have been a whole lot better than it is - but it isn't - and it isn't a whole lot worse than it could have been.

As I said at the start - there's no way to know.

quote:
I'm not saying that the effect has been positive or negative; all I'm saying is that it's a fallacy to believe that you can measure the effect one way or the other without knowing what the effect of not implementing the package would have been.


.
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33 posted 10-17-2009 03:50 PM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

True enough.,..tell it to Obama
Bob K
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34 posted 10-17-2009 05:17 PM       View Profile for Bob K   Email Bob K   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Bob K

Dear Mike,

          Not a stuck record, Mike.  Not even the same eight years.

     Not even the same President Bush.  

     This must play havoc with you and your billing and income taxes, this automatic shutoff of your brain when you see the number.

     Since the words were the last two in the post, and despite the  impression you sometimes give me of doing things completely backwards, I don't actually believe that to be the case.

     I asked about the way you dealt with the Republican Jobless recession in the early 90's.  I think your unwillingness to grapple with the inconvenience of the question does not mean that there aren't issues with this jobless recovery.  I also think that it's worth the trouble of figuring what the difference is between this one and the last one, so that we can talk about whatever the actual problems are in a way that reaches beyond partisan concerns.  I think that would be in everybody's interest.

     If there are authentic problems here, I want to be able to think about them too, and I don't want to be distracted by issues that we could simply alternate sides on, depending upon who's in power.

Yours,  Bob Kaven

    
Balladeer
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35 posted 10-17-2009 10:59 PM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

Were you blaming it on Bush or on Reagan,

LOL! You give me a choice between two Republican presidents.....nice

Actually, Bob, you would be amazed at my lack of interest in politics 20 years ago. Besides, I just found out through Ron's explanation of "lagging indicators" that George Bush must have been responsible for Clinton's era of prosperity....a nice thought
Bob K
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36 posted 10-17-2009 11:45 PM       View Profile for Bob K   Email Bob K   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Bob K


Dear Mike,

          If you'd actually have read the post I'd written, you might have seen something very close to the same thing, as well as some qualified praise of Bush senior.  It's still there.

     You seem to be in such a hurry to see me on one way that you blank out on evidence that doesn't support you opinion.

     I gave you the choice of two Republican Presidents because; a) there was a Republican President in office at the time, and there had been for the entire term of office; and, 2) the President in office before that was Ronald Reagan, for eight years, who had handed him the economy that Republicans ever since had spoken of in plummy golden tones.  The choice is even less ambiguous than the one presented now, isn't it?

     The choice is presented by history.  Once again, you've gotten out that old Republican six shooter to murder the messenger, so that you can pretend the news doesn't exist.  For somebody who couldn't be interested in history, you were sure quick to bring up a lot of it during the last Bush administration, and use the finger-pointing technique that you so loathe now to take the heat off Bush junior.

     You are perhaps telling me that I was foolish to take your references to past history seriously at that time?  That you were only trying to change the subject to get away from dealing with the poverty of Bush's position at the time?  Nevertheless, I attempted to answer most of those questions as best I could.

     If you felt that material was interesting enough to bring up, including material about Hillary's health care initiatives in '92 and '93, I find your sudden shift in attitude about the material from 90-and '91 as ancient history to ring hollowly indeed.

     I believe you probably defended Bush Senior's Jobless recovery during the '92 Presidential campaign with as much fervor as you are attacking this jobless recovery.  I make no attempt to say Jobless recoveries are good or bad because I simply don't know.  What I am interested in is how the two jobless recoveries are different, and in what we can learn by looking at the differences and the similarities between them.  For all I know you may be correct in condemning the democrats on both occasions.  What I want to know is what have we learned?

     If Obama made a mistake here, exactly what is it?

     If it's the same thing that Bush senior did, what makes Bush Senior's tactics a good one (and I think it was) and what makes Obama's tactic a bad one.  I think it wasn't, but I want to learn about it.  In order to do that we need to get beyond this partisan twaddle and it is twaddle and start thinking.  Together.

     Is that asking too much?

Sincerely, Bob Kaven

[This message has been edited by Bob K (10-18-2009 12:19 AM).]

Balladeer
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37 posted 10-18-2009 12:19 AM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

I also think that it's worth the trouble of figuring what the difference is between this one and the last one, so that we can talk about whatever the actual problems are in a way that reaches beyond partisan concerns.

Yes, Bob, that could be a way to see the similarities and differences. Unfortunately, I'm not up to going back investigating all of the reasons and facts concerning the 90-91  recession and also the current one for comparison purposes. There is simply not enough free time in my day for that.

Besides, I doubt anything would be resolved by it. You stated once that you felt Clinton had a large part of the blame for the housing crisis. Then you blamed it on republicans. When I reprinted your statement about Clinton, you accused me of taking your statement out of context. I have a feeling that same type of rapport would happen in this case so it would probably be a waste of time for both of us....I'd rather play poker.
Balladeer
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38 posted 10-18-2009 12:46 AM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

I believe you probably defended Bush Senior's Jobless recovery during the '92 Presidential campaign with as much fervor as you are attacking this jobless recovery.  

Then your belief would be wrong. I actually had no feelings one way or another about the '92 campaign. It didn't bother me when Clinton won at all. I actually didn't get interested in politics, or at least Clinton, when I started seeing some of the shoddy things he and Hillary were doing and wondering how they were getting away with it...like the White House travel office, the missing FBI files that magically showed up on Hillary's desk and other items like that. It made me wonder why the press turned a blind eye to all of those things and caused me to see the connection between the press and democrats...and it bothered me. I started paying attention to politics after that and began seeing the double standard and all of the sleazy things democrats were getting away with.

What is Obama doing wrong? He's strangling the geese that lay the golden eggs. He's going after those "evil rich" who provide jobs to the point they are not providing jobs and he's complaining that there are not enough jobs. He's thrown the economy into a debt that can't be repaid for generations. He's trying to raise taxes at a time people are having a hard time existing. He has gone against all evidence that one doesn't tax oneself out of debt and turned his back on JFK wisdom. He is increasing government controls at a time there should be less. His plans for redistribution of wealth will have grave consequences. He will not allow businesses to get us out of this recession because he is anti-business.

Those are my opinions of Obama's policies and their repercussions.
Bob K
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39 posted 10-18-2009 09:53 PM       View Profile for Bob K   Email Bob K   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Bob K



     Well, Mike, I see that you're making an effort here.  I still believe that Clinton had some things to do with the housing crisis.  I don't believe his role was large, but I believe that there was some role.  I also believe that the Bush Senior tax cut did help the jobless recovery at that time.  I believe it did help lay the groundwork for the prosperity for the 90's, though was not solely responsible for it.

     I do believe it's important to look at these two Jobless recovery situations and try to understand the differences and the similarities between them.  I wrote a bit about that in another thread just a little while ago, and I don't want to repeat myself.  I think that it will save us a lot of high blood pressure and let us do some thinking together, always a useful exercise.

     Mostly I'm concerned about your gut and hope that things are going to go well for you.

     I watched a Saturday night live skit last night with The Rock who used to be the pro wrestler playing Barack Obama confronting a group of Republican senators and then Joe Biden in the Oval Office.  I think you can probably find it on the net.  With your generous sense of humor, you'd probably have hysterics the whole way through it.  Obama got angry and turned into Hulk/Obama.

Best to you, Bob Kaveb
Balladeer
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40 posted 10-18-2009 10:01 PM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

Yes, George S. showed it on This Week this morning...and it IS hilarious
 
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