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Balladeer
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75 posted 11-11-2008 07:42 PM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

I don't disagree, Ron. Grinch brought him up as the man who dragged us out of the depression to make a point. Denise corrected him by showing that he actually extended to depression...and then it all blossomed from there.

I've never had a problem with FDR and have always considered him to be a very admirable President. You are right that he had the ability to inspire people and give them hope and he did it at a time that hope was a rare commodity.

He did do some things by following the same procedures you have been very vocal in blasting Bush for, but who's counting?

I DO agree with the experts who claim that WWII, more than anything else, ended the depression.
oceanvu2
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76 posted 11-12-2008 04:44 PM       View Profile for oceanvu2   Email oceanvu2   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for oceanvu2

Hi Balladeer.  WWII ended a lot of things, most of which were human lives.  

Personally, I don't see WWIII as a reasonable alternative to bailing out scoundrels and rapscallions, at home or abroad.  In the long run, it will probably hurt less.

Ron:  I understand your notion that Social Security isn't the best of ideas.  I wonder what your alternative proposal might be.

Best, Jimbeaux

Balladeer
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77 posted 11-12-2008 05:51 PM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

Ok, Jim, you have me scratching my head now. Who on God's green earth said anything about WWII being a reasonable alternative? I simply said it did it...period. Finis. Eso es todo. Nada mas.
Brad
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78 posted 11-12-2008 06:18 PM       View Profile for Brad   Email Brad   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Brad

And how was the economy run during WWII?

My point is not to recommend a socialist model for today's problems but to show that the same facts that everybody cites can also lead you in the opposite direction (Krugman said something similar last week).

FDR began with the corporatist, Italian model (yeah, the F word) and then switched because that didn't work so well.

History, as I've said before, is a dangerous game to play. It tends to bite you when you're not looking.

But honestly we're not talking socialist economics, we're talking Keynsian economics. During FDR's presidency, there wasn't such a thing as Keynsian economics. It hadn't been written yet.

Thanks to all who did a lot of the homework I was going to do, but didn't have the time.
oceanvu2
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79 posted 11-12-2008 06:43 PM       View Profile for oceanvu2   Email oceanvu2   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for oceanvu2

Mike --  You missed an "I".  I said WWIII was not a reasonable alternative to a bailout.

Best, Jimbeaux
Grinch
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80 posted 11-12-2008 06:48 PM       View Profile for Grinch   Email Grinch   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Grinch

John Maynard Keynes + FDR
http://newdeal.feri.org/misc/keynes2.htm

It seems that John Maynard Keynes was not only an economist but also a fortune teller:

“Wall Street and the bankers will probably say, when the brief recovery comes, that it came of itself, and would have come more quickly had the government not interfered. They will use that argument as an excuse for going back to complete anarchy. But it is a false argument. The recovery in very large measure is a result of what the administration has done, and further government action is desirable to keep in existence the instrumentalities that have demonstrated their value.”

http://newdeal.feri.org/misc/keynes1.htm
Balladeer
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81 posted 11-12-2008 07:17 PM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

Gotcha, Jim. I'll keep an "I" out for ya from now on
Balladeer
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82 posted 11-12-2008 07:40 PM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

I confess, Brad, that I don't know that much about Keynsian economics. Every time I look at it I get confused because I find it, well, confusing.

Keynes sought to develop a theory that would explain determinants of saving, consumption, investment and production. In that theory, the interaction of aggregate demand and aggregate supply determines the level of output and employment in the economy.

He also argued that to boost employment, real wages had to go down: nominal wages would have to fall more than prices. However, doing so would reduce consumer demand, so that the aggregate demand for goods would drop. This would in turn reduce business sales revenues and expected profits. Investment in new plants and equipment—perhaps already discouraged by previous excesses—would then become more risky, less likely. Instead of raising business expectations, wage cuts could make matters much worse.

Further, if wages and prices were falling, people would start to expect them to fall. This could make the economy spiral downward as those who had money would simply wait as falling prices made it more valuable—rather than spending. As Irving Fisher argued in 1933, in his Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions, deflation (falling prices) can make a depression deeper as falling prices and wages made pre-existing nominal debts more valuable in real terms.

The impact of Keynesianism can be seen by the wave of economists who have based their analysis on a criticism of Keynesianism.

Grinch
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83 posted 11-12-2008 09:22 PM       View Profile for Grinch   Email Grinch   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Grinch

Mike,

As far as the piece you posted goes you need to understand the economic theories that Keynes was arguing against to get even close to unravelling what he was saying.

Under the old theories prevalent in the 20’s high unemployment was seen as being a result of high wages so they lowered wages, the thinking being that businesses would employ more people if it cost less. Unfortunately all that actually did was deepen the recession.

Keynes explanation as to why that happened is laid out in the piece you’ve quoted. People with less money because of lower wages have less to spend so demand drops which reduces sales. Reduced sales mean reduced profit and reduced profit and a shrinking market means less investment.

Keynes also promoted tax increases for higher end earners and a redistribution to lower earners. The theory is that the rich are rich because they don’t spend their money and the poor are poor because they don’t save theirs, and when there’s a depression, or the chance of a depression, what you need is people spending.

There’s another school of thought that says that what you need to do in a depression is to lower taxes for businesses, it’s called the trickle down effect. The idea being that with more money available businesses can invest and employ more people. The flaw in that argument, as pointed out by Keynes, is that the businesses won’t expand because the market is stagnant or shrinking. It’s pointless taking on more staff and producing more goods if nobody buys them. The businesses simply cut production, hold onto their money, lay off staff and wait for an upturn in the market.

Balladeer
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84 posted 11-12-2008 09:53 PM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

That's very interesting, grinch. Thanks for the thumbnail sketch.

A couple of questions...

Do you agree that the rich are rich because they don't spend money?

If there are more people employed, why would markets be stagnant or shrinking?

If that were the case, how could there ever be an upturn?

Why do so many economists criticize Keynesianism?
Balladeer
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85 posted 11-13-2008 12:15 AM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

Btw, Grinch here's a quote from someone you may know

I contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle.
-Winston Churchill
Denise
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86 posted 11-13-2008 10:04 AM       View Profile for Denise   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Denise

So, aside from the economic aspects, are there any concerns/comments about the other points of Obama's agenda that I listed previously, like his Civilian National Security Force, that he wants funded at the same level as the military, and his Youth Corps, for example? Do they strike anyone as a bit Hitleresque or Stalinesque?
serenity blaze
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87 posted 11-13-2008 11:29 AM       View Profile for serenity blaze   Email serenity blaze   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for serenity blaze

Stalinesque...what a word!



It's actually melodious.

But um, is there some place where I can learn more about this Denise?

I'd like to learn more about it. (Um, I can find Stalin--I'm talking about President-elect Obama's proposal.)

Susan Caldwell
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88 posted 11-13-2008 11:44 AM       View Profile for Susan Caldwell   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Susan Caldwell

I tried looking and big brother is denying me access.....

I find that somewhat Ironic...

"too bad ignorance isn't painful"
~Unknown~

Denise
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89 posted 11-13-2008 11:48 AM       View Profile for Denise   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Denise

His agenda was listed on his transition website, but has been since taken down, but you should still be able to find it on his campaign website, unless that also has been changed.
Susan Caldwell
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90 posted 11-13-2008 11:48 AM       View Profile for Susan Caldwell   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Susan Caldwell

big brother relinquished some control to me:
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/04/barack_obama_the_community_org.html
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/07/obamas_civilian_national_secur.html

there are other links within the article...

"too bad ignorance isn't painful"
~Unknown~

Susan Caldwell
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91 posted 11-13-2008 12:03 PM       View Profile for Susan Caldwell   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Susan Caldwell

Sorry the source for the below is: http://www.barackobama.com/pdf/ObamaBlueprintForChange.pdf

Integrate Service into Learning

Expand Service-Learning in Our Nation’s Schools: Obama and Biden will set a goal that all middle and high school students do 50 hours of community service a year. They will develop national guidelines for service-learning and will give schools better tools both to develop programs and to document student experience.

Green Job Corps: Obama and Biden will create an energy-focused youth jobs program to provide disadvantaged
youth with service opportunities weatherizing buildings and getting practical experience in fast-growing
career fields.

Expand YouthBuild Program: Obama and Biden will expand the YouthBuild program, which gives disadvantaged
young people the chance to complete their high school education, learn valuable skills and build affordable
housing in their communities. They will grow the program so that 50,000 low-income young people a year a chance to learn construction job skills and complete high school.

Require 100 Hours of Service in College: Obama and Biden will establish a new American Opportunity Tax Credit that worth $4,000 a year in exchange for 100 hours of public service a year.

Promote College Serve-Study: Obama and Biden will ensure that at least 25 percent of College Work-Study funds are used to support public service opportunities instead of jobs in dining halls and libraries.
Susan Caldwell
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92 posted 11-13-2008 12:11 PM       View Profile for Susan Caldwell   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Susan Caldwell

"Do they strike anyone as a bit Hitleresque or Stalinesque?"

"Schirach asked Adolf Hitler to allow him to create an independent youth movement. Hitler agreed and Schirach now made several important changes to the way it was organized. In 1936 membership of the HJ was made compulsory for all boys aged 15 and 18. At the same time all other youth organizations were banned.

In 1938 there were 8,000 full-time leaders of the HJ. There were also 720,000 part-time HJ leaders, often schoolteachers, who had been trained in National Socialist principles.

For boys aged between 10 and 14 years Baldur von Schirach set up the Jungvolk. The boys had to learn semaphore, arms drill, and take part in two-day cross-country hikes. They also had to learn Nazi dogma and once they passed the necessary tests they were given a special dagger marked "Blood and Honour". The main objective of the organization was to provide Adolf Hitler with loyal supporters "
Source: http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/GERyouth.htm

I am going to go with a no on that question Denise.

"too bad ignorance isn't painful"
~Unknown~

serenity blaze
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93 posted 11-13-2008 12:39 PM       View Profile for serenity blaze   Email serenity blaze   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for serenity blaze

I'll be reading before I offer up any opinion. thanks!
rwood
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94 posted 11-13-2008 02:48 PM       View Profile for rwood   Email rwood   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for rwood

The Obama/Biden program list Susan provided seems to be proactive in providing youth more options to become focused and productive in society, as opposed to wayward and unproductive.

Hitler focused on annihilation. To let our unfortunate youth fall by the wayside without any call to prosper as citizens is more Hitlerish than programs designed to help them build a better life.

Nothing is in place yet, but I welcome all positive foundations that will uplift and empower our youth for the future.
Susan Caldwell
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95 posted 11-13-2008 03:43 PM       View Profile for Susan Caldwell   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Susan Caldwell


I like the part about a tax credit for college students that do community service...(I think that's what it said) and here is why..

When I was in college (I was a "non-traditional" student with 3 young children) one professor said part of our grade was going to be on community service rendered.  I had a problem with that as it wasn't in the syllabus and I didn't like not having a choice.

Obama's plan gives the student a choice.

It's how I raised my children. I taught them, to the best of my ability, right from wrong, ethical-unethical, and when they were in their teens I started letting them make  decisions and taking responsibility for said decisions.  I kinda take pride in that. We learn from our choices.  

"too bad ignorance isn't painful"
~Unknown~

Denise
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96 posted 11-13-2008 04:09 PM       View Profile for Denise   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Denise

I don't think the German people had any idea that Hitler's ultimate plans were annihilation, Regina, when he first started his youth corps. I think it was looked upon at the time as a good and patriotic thing for the young boys to be involved in, in the beginning.

--------------------------------------------
Require 100 Hours of Service in College: Obama and Biden will establish a new American Opportunity Tax Credit that worth $4,000 a year in exchange for 100 hours of public service a year
--------------------------------------------

I don't think that choice is involved Susan, unless "Require" simply means they lose the $4,000 tax credit if they fail to do all or most of the hours per year. I have a feeling though that it will have an impact on the credits they earn toward their degree as well. So I really don't think they will have a choice if they want to eventually earn their degree.

His original outline also stated that the 50 hours per year for middle and high schoolers would be "required". I think they've softened that to where it now reads "opportunity for service", which still doesn't necessarily mean that it won't be required.


serenity blaze
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97 posted 11-13-2008 05:04 PM       View Profile for serenity blaze   Email serenity blaze   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for serenity blaze

Denise? Why the assumption of malicious intent?

I know we don't always agree (I think we "met" bumping heads in this here forum) but shouldn't we all be investing some emotion into the possibility that this might be a good thing? I do know personally that you are a generous, intelligent, and insightful sort of person, so I hope you know I'm not insulting you by asking for anyone to be given a "free pass" of benefit-of-the-doubt-legislation.

This is indeed something we should pay attention to, I believe, reserving alarms for when they are necessary.

Comparisons to Hitler and Stalin are more rightly consigned to the past--so far.

(Like Susan, I am particularly interested in the exchange of financial aid for college in exchange for community service.)

Don't we all want good and true leadership?

I'm not suggesting for one second that we take our eyes off of the power of the presidency for even that one second.

I am suggesting that we all keep fear-mongering semantics down to a low roar until we understand exactly what the proposition(s) is/are about. (I'm sure you agree with that, too, so I do hope you don't think me lecturing.)

We've got a lot of work to do.



And I am on your side if you're suggesting that we keep a close eye on middle of the night legislature, because I do agree.

We slept through a lot of stuff prior to this time, so I've decided to read, try to stay informed, and always, always consider the source.

I've got...hope, now.

(and a copy of the Constitution)

Great stuff, too, btw. I think we should keep it.


Bob K
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98 posted 11-13-2008 08:36 PM       View Profile for Bob K   Email Bob K   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Bob K


Dear Mike,

quote:

The impact of Keynesianism can be seen by the wave of economists who have based their analysis on a criticism of Keynesianism.



     What is the formal difference between your statement, above, and an equivalent statement made about Christianity by a believing Muslim?

     About eating meat by a confirmed vegetarian?

     About mysticism by a materialist?

     Simply because a Marxist criticism of capitalism came after the evolution of capitalism doesn't mean that capitalism has been superseded and that marxism is correct in your mind does it?

quote:

You prefer to call FDR the greatest president we have had. That's fine with me, too. After all, there were many people who considered Charles Manson God.



     My own ranking suggests more on the order of Washington, Lincoln, Roosevelt.  I admire Jefferson for many things and may put him fourth.  If I'm wrong about my own ranking — I vacillate sometimes —  I can't say I'm all that far off.  I don't really believe that I have ever considered Charles Manson anything north of creepy; and if such a delusion were at all common, he probably would have gotten off, wouldn't he?

     I don't think admiring Roosevelt is in the same league.

Sincerely,  Bob Kaven

Grinch
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Whoville


99 posted 11-13-2008 08:41 PM       View Profile for Grinch   Email Grinch   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Grinch

quote:
Do you agree that the rich are rich because they don't spend money?


Yes.

quote:
If there are more people employed, why would markets be stagnant or shrinking?


Your question is flawed, employment is a consequence of the liquidity of the market not the other way around. If the market is stagnant or shrinking unemployment in manufacturing and service industries will rise.

quote:
If that were the case, how could there ever be an upturn?


An upturn can be stimulated in several ways, one way would be a re-distribution of wealth via tax changes to increase consumer demand by giving the money to people who’ll spend it. Another would be for the government to manipulate the market by increasing public funded works, building bridges, repairing roads, constructing dams etc. Because the work is passed to private contractors this has the benefit of stimulating the construction sector and at the same time promotes employment and increases consumer spending - more people earning money means more people spending money. If you study FDR’s new deal you’ll see this plays a large part.

quote:
Why do so many economists criticize Keynesianism?


Because some of his theories are just plain stupid.

Economics is an art not a science, people’s views change and new ideas replace old ideas, in economics as in poetry peoples view of the ideal changes over time,  free verse is promoted over traditional verse among the “poetry experts”. In poetry however that doesn’t really matter, the poetry reader can ignore the experts and read whatever they like. When it comes to economics listening to the experts is a tad more dangerous.

You can however apply the pudding test to judge economic theory. Keynes economic theories have been successfully applied and have proved themselves by steering many economies out of recession. So far the alternatives which replaced them haven’t faired so well. That’s not to say Keynesian theory is somehow superior, as I said some of his ideas are downright stupid but others seem to continue to work.


quote:
I contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle.
-Winston Churchill


It’s a great quote Mike.

It‘s a bad argument against raising income tax though, that’s not really your fault, the argument is so prevalent on the internet as a counter to increasing taxes it’s easy to take it at face value.

It’s a bad argument for three reasons, the first is it’s an argument from authority, the presumption being that Churchill being a great Prime minister was also a great economist. That’s not really a problem though because Churchill had a good understanding of economics, thanks largely to Keynes.

The second reason it’s a bad argument is that I live about 30 miles from where he made the speech that quote comes from and I happen to know what he was actually talking about. That leads nicely into the third reason.

Churchill made that quote in a speech in Manchester at the Free Trade Hall in 1904. The speech was an argument about the stupidity of protectionist policies with regard to cotton, specifically American cotton. An issue very close to the hearts of people in Lancashire at the time where the major industry relied on imported cotton. The tax he was arguing against was an import tax, not an income tax. His argument was fairly simple - if you can formulate a reasonably argument  for implementing import taxes those arguments are just as reasonably to the countries you are exporting to.

It’s a sound argument against import tax and protectionism and in favour of free trade but unfortunately has nothing to do with income tax.

You can validate that here if you have time.
http://www.winstonchurchill.org/i4a/pages/index.cfm?pageID=1185&textonly=1

 
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