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Report: North Pole May Be Ice-Free This Summer

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Huan Yi
Member Ascendant
since 10-12-2004
Posts 6334
Waukegan


0 posted 06-27-2008 03:14 PM       View Profile for Huan Yi   Email Huan Yi   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Huan Yi

.
“Scientists worldwide are trying to figure out why the Arctic is warming and melting faster than computer models predict.

"Last year we saw huge areas of the ocean open up, which has never been experienced before. People are expecting this to continue this year and it is likely to extend over the North Pole. It is quite likely that the North Pole will be exposed this summer — it's not happened before," said Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University, one of the first civilian scientists to sail beneath Arctic sea ice in a British Royal Navy submarine.”

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,372542,00.html


One possibility:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080625140649.htm


.
Bob K
Member Elite
since 11-03-2007
Posts 3860


1 posted 08-14-2008 05:30 PM       View Profile for Bob K   Email Bob K   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Bob K



     Which computer models would these be, Huan Yi?

     Fox news as I recall seems to believe that Global warming is a left wing scam.  Please correct me if I'm incorrect on this.  As I recall as well, your opinions, as best I can figure them out, are pretty much in line with the opinions that I'm, perhaps falsely here, attributing to Fox news.  

     That something that appears to be acting like global warming seems to be reducing the north polar ice cap to a mere shadow of its former self in a way that seems to be in line with the warming predicted by the global warming models that environmentalists have been putting forward for quite some time now seems less than shocking to me.  It actually seems to be confirmatory.

     I notice that the article in Nature that you mention does cover some very interesting new ground.  Similar ground has been covered in work on the effect of the collapse of the water column on the appearance of the wreck of "The Titanic."  Charles Pelligrino reviews this work, work on the collapse of the vent system and the outflow of superheated gasses in the 76 AD eruption of Vesuvius,  and the blast effects of the collapse of the towers towers in the Word Trade Center and the spread of debris fields.  Pelligrino's book is simple enough for even a non scientist such as myself to enjoy and learn from.  The change in temperature from such vulcanism, as I understand it, at least in atmosphere, is downward, from the blocking out of sunlight worldwide.  

     This effect would probably not effect things at a depth of three miles, where things are dark anyway.  And the article in Nature which you reference is nowhere quoted as creating a significant increase in oceanic temperature.  There are other large scale escapes of volcanic heat in the world that have no more than highly localized effects.  The effects of the volcanism in the Nature article have not, so far as I've seen, been correlated with any particular period of time, nor is there any reason to suspect that they are related to global warming except in the hopes of those who would wish that their political choices had not contributed to this situation.  No reference was made to such a correlation in the references you offered.

     If I have misunderstood, please correct me.  I am always interested in seeing where I may have gone wrong in those situations where I have done so.

Sincerely, BobK.  
Grinch
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since 12-31-2005
Posts 2710
Whoville


2 posted 08-14-2008 05:57 PM       View Profile for Grinch   Email Grinch   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Grinch

quote:
it's not happened before," said Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University,


“It’s happened a few times in the past,” said Grinch - a fellow of the University of reality.


Balladeer
Administrator
Member Empyrean
since 06-05-99
Posts 26302
Ft. Lauderdale, Fl USA


3 posted 08-14-2008 07:46 PM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

He meant except for those, Grinch
Bob K
Member Elite
since 11-03-2007
Posts 3860


4 posted 08-15-2008 03:39 PM       View Profile for Bob K   Email Bob K   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Bob K

Dear Folks,

     Huan Yi's quote was somewhat misleading as an overall representation of the article.  The lead sentence of the article read, "For the first time in recorded history, the North Pole may be free of ice this summer, according to a published report Friday."  I must agree with both Grinch and Balladeer that the quote they are discussing is not representative of that lead.  They are correct to criticize, especially if the quote is complete and accurate.

     The point of the article was, however, as I understand it,  that the speed of the warming had been startling,  not that the warming had happened at all, which the models had apparently predicted.  The speed was the surprise.  To environmentalists, who have been talking about this sort of thing since at least 1970, when I started following the whole sorry mess, this is not very much of a shock.  

     [Other environment predictions, such as the effects of population growth, have not come to pass, in part because they may have been partly wrong and in part because large parts of the world have tried to respond to the predictions in a sensible way.  Also because new agricultural avenues have opened up which may or may not be of long term help.  I include this here because I try to  be fair as best I can.  I put it in brackets because it seems a side discussion.]  

     Furthermore, it appears that the story that Huan Yi linked us to reports no particular connection between the fascinating vulcanism reported in Nature and the rise in oceanic temperature.  I believe he would like to conclude that the rise in sea temperature was from local vulcanism and not from an unprecedented speed in a pattern of global warming due to emissions of green house gasses and use of fossil fuels and changes in oceanic ecology, among other preventable causal factors.

     Since I am so clearly exercising an unwarranted level of mind reading here, I depend on the corrective powers of Huan Yi himself to set me straight on any incorrect attributions I have accidently laid at his feet.  Sorry in advance.

Yours sincerely,

Bob K
    
Grinch
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since 12-31-2005
Posts 2710
Whoville


5 posted 08-15-2008 04:22 PM       View Profile for Grinch   Email Grinch   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Grinch

Don’t you just love those “scientists” - they all seem to have PHD’s in stating the bleeding obvious. Take this from the first article:

“Ron Lindsay, a polar scientist at the University of Washington in Seattle, agreed that a great deal now depends on weather, wind patterns and hours of sunshine in the Arctic."

Way to go Ron, and your conclusion is..

"There's a good chance that it will all melt away at the North Pole — it's certainly feasible, but it's not guaranteed," Lindsay said.

Please tell me his next words weren’t - “Mmmm… Duff Beer”
Bob K
Member Elite
since 11-03-2007
Posts 3860


6 posted 08-15-2008 06:14 PM       View Profile for Bob K   Email Bob K   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Bob K



Dear Grinch,

          One personal favorite—"More research will be required."  

     I have yet to come across a journal article that says, "That's it, folks; we've got the whole business settled.  Everybody else can just go home now."

Best to you,  BobK.


 
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