Ft. Lauderdale, Fl USA
Oh, and for the record, I have no friends at the Heartland Institute, do not know any ofthe 60 scientists listed who sent the letter to the Canadian PM, and know no one at the CATO Institute, who submitted the following....
Patrick J. Michaels
Professor of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, and Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at Cato Institute
On the Kyoto Protocol before the
Committee on Small Business
United States House of Representatives
Kyoto Protocol: "A useless appendage to an irrelevant treaty"
July 29, 1998
Thank you for soliciting my testimony on the science of climate change as it pertains to the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Nearly ten years ago, I first testified on climate change in the U.S. House of Representatives. At that time, I argued that forecasts of dramatic and deleterious global warming were likely to be in error because of the very modest climate changes that had been observed to that date. Further, it would eventually be recognized that this more moderate climate change would be inordinately directed into the winter and night, rather than the summer, and that this could be benign or even beneficial. I testified that the likely warming, based on the observed data, was between 1.0 and 1.5ï¿½C for doubling the natural carbon dioxide greenhouse effect.
The preceding paragraph was excerpted verbatim from my last testimony before this House, on November 6, 1997. Since that last testimony, new scientific advances have been published in the refereed literature that have now proven the validity of this position. The key findings include:
* Documentation that observed climate change is several times below the amount predicted by the climate models that served as the basis for the Framework Convention on Climate Change (Hansen et al., 1998),
* Documentation that observed changes are largely confined to winter in the very coldest continental airmasses of Siberia and northwestern North America (Balling et al., 1998),
* Documentation that the variation, or unpredictability, of regional temperatures has declined significantly on a global basis while there was no change in precipitation (Michaels et al., 1998),
* Documentation that, in the United States, drought has decreased while flooding has not increased (Lins and Slack, 1997),
* Documentation that carbon dioxide is increasing in the atmosphere at a rate below the most conservative United Nationsï¿½ scenarios, because it is being increasingly captured by growing vegetation (Hansen et al., 1998),
* Documentation that the second most important human greenhouse enhancerï¿½methaneï¿½is not likely to increase appreciably in the next 100 years (Dlugokencky et al., 1998),
* Documentation that the direct warming effect of carbon dioxide was overestimated (Myhre et al., 1998), and
* Documentation that the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will have no discernable impact on global climate within any reasonable policy timeframe (Wigley, 1998).
In toto, these findings lead inescapably to the conclusion that the magnitude and the threat from global warming is greatly diminished. They should provoke a re-examination of the need for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the subsequent Kyoto Protocol.
In conclusion, the observed data on climate and recent emissions trends clearly indicate that the concept of "dangerous" interference in the climate system is outmoded within any reasonable horizon. This makes the Kyoto Protocol a useless appendage to an irrelevant treaty. It is time to reconsider the Framework Convention.
I don't even know anyone atthe National Academy of Sciences...
From 1998 through 2007 the Oregon Petition ("Global Warming Petition"), sponsored by Dr. Frederick Seitz, former president of the National Academy of Sciences, was signed by 17,200 scientists including 2,660 physicists, geophysicists, climatologists, meteorologists, oceanographers, and environmental scientists. It urged the US to reject the Kyoto Protocol.