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How Now, Down Dow?

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Balladeer
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0 posted 03-09-2009 09:51 PM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer


Self-described "middle-of-the-road Democrat, Obama supporter and CNBC analyst Jim Cramer:

    Look at the incredible decline in the stock market, in all indices, since the inauguration of the president, with the drop accelerating when the budget plan came to light because of the massive fear and indecision the document sowed: Raising taxes on the eve of what could be a second Great Depression, destroying the profits in healthcare companies (one of the few areas still robust in the economy), tinkering with the mortgage deduction at a time when U.S. house price depreciation is behind much of the world's morass and certainly the devastation affecting our banks, and pushing an aggressive cap and trade program that could raise the price of energy for millions of people.

    The market's the effect; much of what the president is fighting for is the cause. The market's signal can't be ignored. It's too palpable, too predictive to be ignored, despite the prattle that the market's predicted far more recessions than we have. ... But Obama has undeniably made things worse by creating an atmosphere of fear and panic rather than an atmosphere of calm and hope. He's done it by pushing a huge amount of change at a very perilous moment, by seeking to demonize the entire banking system and by raising taxes for those making more than $250,000 at the exact time when we need them to spend and build new businesses, and by revoking deductions for funds to charity and that help eliminate the excess supply of homes.
http://www.usnews.com/blogs/capital-commerce/2009/3/5/jim-cramer-to-barack-obama-youve-made-things-worse.html


WASHINGTON (AP) - President Barack Obama is comparing the stock market to the daily tracking polls used during campaigns, saying that paying too close attention to Wall Street's "fits and starts" could lead to bad long-term policy.
Obama spoke to reporters Tuesday after meeting in the Oval Office with visiting British Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Obama said he is not measuring policies against "the day-to-day gyrations of the stock market," but by whether lending is flowing more freely, businesses are investing and the unemployed are going back to work.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D96MMP3O3&show_article=1
Will someone please remind the community organizer that the stock market is not a tracking poll and these "day to day gyrations" are better described as a nosedive?
turtle
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1 posted 03-09-2009 10:23 PM       View Profile for turtle   Email turtle   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for turtle

Hi Balladeer,

Yeah, I'm pretty much seeing the same thing on CNN as well.

Quote:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
but by whether lending is flowing more freely, businesses are investing and the unemployed are going back to work.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Lets see, what part of this WASHINGTON (AP) release do I think is wishful thinking....

Balladeer
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2 posted 03-10-2009 11:16 AM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

let's see indeed, turtle.....
Local Rebel
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3 posted 03-10-2009 02:19 PM       View Profile for Local Rebel   Email Local Rebel   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Local Rebel

I think Kramer (regardless of his track record) brings up some good points for discussion.

quote:

tinkering with the mortgage deduction



Why should middle class homeowners live in socialized housing?
Grinch
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4 posted 03-10-2009 02:21 PM       View Profile for Grinch   Email Grinch   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Grinch


Mike,

I agree, your President is a waste of space. he's clearly responsible for creating and fuelling perhaps the biggest financial collapse in economic history.

Err.. hang on, the stock market has just posted a massive rally in share prices.

I take it all back, Obama’s plan seems to be working, but if it share prices fall again tomorrow I reserve my right to change my mind again.

Balladeer
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5 posted 03-10-2009 03:00 PM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

LOL! I was waiting for that...one gain in the past week after week of the market doing it's best Titanic impersonation and someone will some along to say all is well (even tongue in cheek )

Let's see how long that will last....personally, i'd like to see it last for months and possibly salvage something out of what once was considered an IRA. Having see the track record up to this point, however, it's more likely that it will only last until someone from the administration opens their mouth with the next ridiculous comment to send it dropping again.

Poor Kramer...they're really after him now. He's finding out that even having been a solid Democrat in good standing for years, that won't save him from the media hounds being unleased at anyone who would dare claim Obama is screwing up. We could have told him that's their normal modus operandi.
Grinch
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6 posted 03-10-2009 04:04 PM       View Profile for Grinch   Email Grinch   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Grinch


So you’re saying that Cramer is wrong and Obama is right, that we should ignore daily gyrations in the stock market and look at the underlying trends.

I agree.

quote:
Poor Kramer...they're really after him now.


If Cramer is as wrong as you suggest Mike are the negative comments he’s getting not deserved?

Besides after his "Buy Bear Stearns" advice seven weeks before it collapsed the guy deserves a mauling.

Balladeer
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7 posted 03-10-2009 08:46 PM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

The fact that you can take my words and come up with the exact opposite of what I am saying (intentionally) is proof, I suppose , that you and I will never be able to communicate effectively.

No, I don't think that Kramer is wrong and I don't believe Obama is right. Kramer has voiced the opinions of Buffett and many money experts in the field and for a president to say he doesn't pay that much attention to the market is an imbecile.

Does Kramer deserve to be jumped on? According to the Democrats, certainly. After all, he spoke against Obama. That's a sin, even for a democrat like he is. That sounds the bugle, rallies the troops, tells the talk shows to target him and get the presses rolling to bury him. How ironic that a solid Democrat like Kramer would find himself villified by his own party and defended by someone like Limbaugh, simply for speaking his own mind. Perhaps Kramer does deserve a mauling after his Bear Sterns advice but why wasn't he mauled when it happened instead of now digging back to resurrect it for ammunition? You know why. It all part of an orchestrated smear campaign. Going along that way of thinking Barney Frank must certainly deserve a mauling, too, for his "Fannie and Freddie are fine" comment while being warned they weren't.....but that must be different to you, I suppose.

Interesting to see that the Bash Kramer movement has traveled all the way to England....
Local Rebel
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8 posted 03-11-2009 01:48 AM       View Profile for Local Rebel   Email Local Rebel   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Local Rebel

Yeah.  I agree.  It's shamefull how the Democrats take faithful followers and trash them after simple screw-ups.  Like Rob Blagojevich, Eliot Spitzer(a personal friend and school chum of Cramer's), Roland Burris...

Instead it should take its' shamed and stand by them like the Republicans do.. like David Vitter, Newt Gingrich, Micheal Steele, GW....

Of Course the real question is -- would you buy a used car from Jim Cramer?

(and Mike -- it is spelled with a 'C' as you spelled it in your originating post.  I used a 'K' as a sarcastic spelling comparing the motormouthed daytrader to Sienfeld's Zany neighbor Cosmo'Kramer')

I'm afraid you're going to have to substantiate the claim though that the 'Democrats are trashing Cramer'.

I see a fued with Jon Stewart and Frank Rich with some opportunistic digging from Faux News mogul Roger Ailes;

quote:

Fox Business Network, sensing an opportunity to tweak CNBC, has developed print and broadcast ads that take ripe aim at Mr. Cramer, saying, “The last thing you need is bad advice. The last thing you need is Jim Cramer.” To add insult to injury, Fox bought local time on CNBC — beating up Mr. Cramer on his own network. (Nice touch, that.)
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/business/media/20carr.html?_r=1&pagewanted=2



The only real damage done to Cramer though has come through his own lips.

But, now, what about that wealth re-distribution from renters to middle class home-owners that it seems you're in favor of?   Have you gone socialist on us?
Balladeer
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9 posted 03-11-2009 08:47 AM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

Nice talking to ya,  reb.
Grinch
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10 posted 03-11-2009 03:13 PM       View Profile for Grinch   Email Grinch   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Grinch


quote:
The fact that you can take my words and come up with the exact opposite of what I am saying


What are you saying Mike?

Cramer said we should track Obama’s success by the daily movements of the stock market.

Obama said we should measure success by the underlying signs and long term trends and not the daily gyrations of the stock market.

You seem to agree with Cramer when the market is down and Obama when the market is up, or put another way you move the goalposts to score a goal against Obama. It’s a nice trick but it isn’t what you might call fair.

quote:
Interesting to see that the Bash Kramer movement has traveled all the way to England.…


What can I say.. The guy is wrong, he has a history of being wrong, and if pointing that out is Cramer bashing I’m guilty as charged whether I come from England, Uzbekistan or Mars.

Balladeer
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11 posted 03-11-2009 04:58 PM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

Cramer said we should track Obama’s success by the daily movements of the stock market.

Please point out where he said that. I see nothing in his comments about daily movements of the market. What I do see is Look at the incredible decline in the stock market, in all indices, since the inauguration of the president That covers the block of time since Obama took charge, not a "daily movement" (even though the daily movement of that block of time has been primarily down)

Obama said we should measure success by the underlying signs and long term trends  Well, the underlying signs so far have been  negative and the long term trend has been down.

you seem to agree with Cramer when the market is down and Obama when the market is up  I don't understand that statement. Since Obama is only interested in long term trends, are you saying that one day up is a long term trend? Why would i agree with Obama due to the market going up one day,when Obama claims those fluctuations don't interest him?

Obama is fashioning his retorts the only way he can. Had the market shown an upward trend since his taking over as chief, he would be the first to say, "Just look at the market. The country believes in my actions."Since it has shown an incredible downward trend, he is forced to  say the market's actions are not really important to him because he is going for the "long term" trend. How long is that? As long as he wants it to be. It's his definition.

He likens the market to a 'tracking poll".  Well, in some ways it IS a poll - a poll of those with money to invest showing their lack of confidence in the economy and in his plans to make it better. Maybe, in his spare time, it would be in his interest to actually pay a little attention to it.

(thank you for acknowledging the possibility that you may actually be from Mars. That would explain a lot.)
Brad
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12 posted 03-11-2009 05:41 PM       View Profile for Brad   Email Brad   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Brad




I know this isn't the stock market but it might give us some perspective.
Brad
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13 posted 03-11-2009 05:49 PM       View Profile for Brad   Email Brad   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Brad

crashingcomparisons

This is too big to post here but if you want to look at the stock market crash in comparison to others. The cut off is Oct. 2008.
crashingcomparisons2

Here is a second one. This charts the last 17 months. The cut off date here is March 11 -- I think.
Balladeer
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14 posted 03-11-2009 06:26 PM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

Interesting, Brad. Thank you. I couldn't get the link to work..

Curious that in a Rasmussen poll conducted today 53% polled claimed they believe we are headed toward a depression equal to the one in the 1930's. I'd say we have a ways to go, no? Why do they think that? Maybe that's because that's what's been drummed into their heads for the past month. Negativity breeds negativity and that's been the steady diet of Democratic rhetoric...total destruction UNLESS their bills are passed immediately. Funny thing is that,now that they have seen the bills, they are STILL negative.
Grinch
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15 posted 03-11-2009 06:32 PM       View Profile for Grinch   Email Grinch   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Grinch

Mike,

You don’t like my reference to daily stock market movements Mike fine, change it to weekly, fortnightly, monthly it doesn’t really matter. That’s because none of them are good indicators of the success of Obama’s recovery plan because, to be blunt, no recovery is likely to happen in those timescales. It’s going to be a long hard slog and the markets are likely to continue in a downward trend before they bottom out and start to turn. [Edited - Ron]

What Cramer is doing  is, in effect, like trying to convince everyone that the fire department is to blame for his house fire while they’re still trying to connect the hoses. To do that he’s pointing at the flames as evidence of their culpability insisting that they’ve been getting worse in the ten minutes it took the firemen to arrive and start tackling the blaze.

quote:
Look at the incredible decline in the stock market, in all indices, since the inauguration of the president


... we’re in a recession, what does Cramer expect, massive gains? [Edited - Ron]

quote:
since the inauguration of the president


Did the downturn in the markets start on the day of the inauguration? Is Obama suddenly to blame for instigating the nosedive?

Obama has inherited a recession that will continue under it’s own steam in the short term regardless of what anyone does. It can possibly be slowed in the medium term but will only be reversed, if at all, in the long term AFTER the solutions put in place are given a chance to take effect.

.

[This message has been edited by Ron (03-11-2009 06:48 PM).]

Balladeer
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16 posted 03-11-2009 07:13 PM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

none of them are good indicators of the success of Obama’s recovery plan

No, they are indicators of investor confidence in Obama's abilities to create a solution.

Having said that, I'm done. If we are at the point where Ron has to step in and clean up your comments (which normally doesn't occur until the second or third page, at least), I'm not interested in continuing. Have fun without me
Grinch
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17 posted 03-11-2009 08:37 PM       View Profile for Grinch   Email Grinch   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Grinch


I’m a little mystified as to why Ron edited my comments Mike, he seems to have removed the parts where I described Cramer’s claims as stupid and silly and a light-hearted dig at myself as being a “mere martian” which as far as understand them don’t breach any of the guidelines.

But I guess the discussion is over, see you around.

Balladeer
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18 posted 03-13-2009 06:14 PM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

Obama startled reporters on Tuesday by seeming to encourage stock buying after his top aides had said for weeks that they were unconcerned over short-term drops in the markets.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0309/19741.html
Huan Yi
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19 posted 03-13-2009 06:44 PM       View Profile for Huan Yi   Email Huan Yi   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Huan Yi

.


“Thursday, March 12, 2009
A Hugely Important Upturn in Retail Sales   [Larry Kudlow]


Doom-and-gloom crowd take notice: Today’s retail-sales report showed far more strength than Wall Street economists dreamed possible.

Overall, February was down slightly, but January was revised up to a 1.8 percent gain. Excluding autos, February was up 0.7 percent and January was up 1.6 percent. In terms of core retail sales (ex autos, gas, and building materials), which feed into the GDP reports, February was up 0.5 percent and January was up 1.7 percent.

In fact, consumer spending in first-quarter GDP could turn positive. Overall, GDP will be down because of a massive inventory liquidation, but the sooner that draw-down is complete the faster we’ll get positive GDP growth — maybe even in Q2.

Meanwhile, the retail-sales upturn is hugely important. I suspect two factors are at work.

First is the energy tax-cut plunge — most especially with retail gas prices going from over $4 to under $2 since last summer. This means the existing level of personal income is worth more to consumers in terms of buying power because of zero inflation and the energy tax cut, which probably amounts to $400 billion annually.

Second is the rapid buildup of the M2 money supply over the past six months. M2 is growing at a double-digit annual rate, following on the Fed’s big liquidity expansion of its balance sheet. With commodities in the open market now stabilizing, the turnover of money (velocity) is also probably stabilizing, and M2 will be a huge economic stimulant in the months ahead.

In other words, even before one dime of the Obama spending package goes into play, the economy is beginning to show the first signs of recovery.

Stocks, by the way, are up 240 points at this writing — their third-straight daily rise on the shoulders of new banking profit reports and today’s positive retail-sales numbers.


Tuesday, March 10, 2009
A Yield-Curve Rally on Wall Street   [Larry Kudlow]


The upward-sloped yield curve has come to Wall Street for a real bailout of the big banks.

Today, Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit told Bloomberg that the bank has turned profitable with its best numbers since 2007. This echoes what BofA CEO Ken Lewis told CNBC about two weeks ago. At the heart of this newfound profitability is a very simple but powerful idea: When short-term Treasury rates are well under long-term rates, banks profit. This is principally because banks borrow short to lend longer.

Back in 2006 and 2007 the yield curve was inverted, and it took its toll on the banking system — playing a major role in the credit crunch. Now, however, Citi, BofA, and probably many others are experiencing good trading profits and good money on their various servicing functions for consumers, corporations, and governments.

Net interest margins are rising. Short-term money is almost free these days, with the fed funds rate near zero and T-bills around 25 basis points. But the rest of the curve is 2 to 3 percent. Additionally, FDIC-guaranteed deposits are surging at all the major banks, providing a strong lending base.

All of this has created a huge 300-point rally in Wall Street trading — led by the financials, but extending across-the-board to all sectors on strong volume.

The banks do have plenty of underwater toxic assets. But there is too much obsessing about these assets, which are held for long-run investment and should not be marked to market as there is no distressed market. Instead, investors should look at positive cash flows — and the strong profitability from these cash flows — in the new interest-rate environment of the upward-sloping Treasury curve.

What’s more, the banks are funding their daily positions with no trouble. When Bear and Lehman failed it was because they couldn’t finance their daily positions. Obviously the banks are in better shape.

Helping today’s trading, Rep. Barney Frank announced that the SEC would be restoring the uptick rule for short sellers, which had been in place for a long time until the SEC’s Chris Cox repealed it in 2007. This means bear raids on banks will be tougher since traders will have to wait for a stock to go up in price before they short it. But selling shares on a downtick in price greases the skids towards ridiculously low share prices for banks and others (think GE).

There also is a lot of rumbling about a liberalization of the mark-to-market rule, which has wreaked so much havoc on bank profits and capital. One way out is to ask the banks for a market mark, but to amortize the implied losses over a period of five-to-seven years for regulatory capital purposes. This also would buy plenty of time for better bank earnings to bolster bank capital positions.

Whether today’s big rally marks a turnaround or just a dead-cat bounce from an oversold market remains to be seen. But surely the return to profitability of America’s biggest banks is a good sign for economic recovery.”


http://kudlow.nationalreview.com/


Again:

“In other words, even before one dime of the Obama spending package goes into play, the economy is beginning to show the first signs of recovery.”

And now that that spending package has been passed,(after suggestions
the universe would collapse if it didn’t), there’s a change in tune; now things are
really not that bad after all.

Anyone notice the Chinese getting involved?


.  

Balladeer
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20 posted 03-13-2009 08:05 PM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

People should, and some do, see how this whole thing has  been orchestrated.

Obama comes to the White House with very negative statements about the economy. He references the banking crisis, the housing crisis, the education crisis, the health care crisis and claims that the country is headed into a downfall in which it may not survive...UNLESS CONGRESS PASSES HIS STIMULUS PACKAGE IMMEDIATELY!!

Immediately after having his stimulus bill passed, he then claims (yesterday) that "perhaps the economy is not as bad as originally thought".

P.T. Barnum would be proud of Obama.....
Local Rebel
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21 posted 03-13-2009 09:28 PM       View Profile for Local Rebel   Email Local Rebel   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Local Rebel

So, exactly what is the conspiracy theory here?  That Bush purposely engineered the weakest recovery in history wherein the middle class actually lost ground by $2000 per year during his term in office -- then through continuation of Reagan's move toward de-regulation and failing to enforce the Sherman Anti-Trust act -- not to mention the Clinton removal of Glass/Steagal -- that allowed banks to become -- 'too big to fail' -- all so that the financial system could collapse -- we could funnel billions into them so that CEo's could keep thier huge bonuses -- John McCain would walk into the trap and 'suspend' his campaign to fix a crisis he obviously wasn't prepared to fix or even know anything about -- thereby the public would be furious with the Republicans, elect Obama -- and then he could pass his huge stimulus package and omnibus spending bills, kiss it, and say... all better....?

But, of course -- we know what you'll be saying next week when the new unemployment numbers come out and the Dow drops again...I think you're right Mike --  P.T. Barnum said it right.

There seem to be about 30% of them in the U.S. population -- not sure how that translates into minutes.

And here's one that surely has had his 15 minutes;

Cramer vs. Shamer

(sorry couldn't embed it in PIPboard for some reason...)

quote:

"I watched the Daily Show with growing shock last night. Did you expect that? I expected a jolly and ultimately congenial discussion, after some banter. What Cramer walked into was an ambush of anger. He crumbled from the beginning. From then on, with the almost cruel broadcasting of his earlier glorifying of financial high-jinks, you almost had to look away. This was, in my view, a real cultural moment. It was a storming of the Bastille."
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/03/to-catch-a-pred.html

Balladeer
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22 posted 03-13-2009 11:12 PM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

But, of course -- we know what you'll be saying next week

Just can't help yourself, LR?

Local Rebel
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23 posted 03-15-2009 11:29 AM       View Profile for Local Rebel   Email Local Rebel   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems  View IP for Local Rebel

Oh, I don't know Mike -- I usually help myself well enough.  Help others all the time too.

Here's some help for you.

Wanna win more debates?  Pick the argument that's supported by facts.  
Balladeer
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24 posted 03-15-2009 04:52 PM       View Profile for Balladeer   Email Balladeer   Edit/Delete Message      Find Poems   Click to visit Balladeer's Home Page   View IP for Balladeer

No one wins debates here, LR. The Alley is a place where we can talk about what bugs us and present facts as we see them. I am satisfied  with the facts I have presented and you are surely satisfied with yours. I am satisfied with my opinions as you are. No one comes to the Alley for a debate tournament. The fact that Cramer is a Democrat is valid. The fact he spoke against Obama's economic plan is valid. The fact that Cramer, along with other prominent individuals, feel that raising taxes at this  time is the wrong way to go is valid. The fact that Jon Stewart ambushed Cramer on his his show in an interview which was immediately reproduced on every major network is valid. There is nothing there to refute.

I have presented my views on this thread. I have not initially singled out any one individual, nor have I initially used and sarcasm, insults or inuendos aimed at any individual. You can agree with my views or not. You can present your own views or not. I've tried to make my comments non-personal. It appears you can't do that....give it a try sometime. We can save Ron some trouble...
 
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